GTA new home sales rebound masks a condo market in retreat

After decades spent immersed in the ever-evolving GTA real estate market, I’ve rarely seen a story quite like this one. Single-family home sales have surged an impressive 50% above average, reaching 781 units—undoubtedly helped along by the recent expansion of the HST rebate. Meanwhile, the condo segment tells a different tale: sales have dropped a striking 80% below average, with only 237 units changing hands. Interestingly, despite this divergence, single-family home prices have adjusted downward by 8.5% to $1.36M, while condo prices have actually edged up 2.5% to $1.05M. With inventory now standing at 18,546 units, there is clearly a dynamic shift underway. Having spent years both financing major development projects and guiding clients—first-time buyers and seasoned investors alike—through every sort of market, I know these numbers are more than just statistics: they’re signals. Navigating them requires an eye for opportunity and a steady hand on the wheel.